Iowa State
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
46  Perez Rotich JR 19:46
91  Erin Hooker SO 20:00
184  Becky Straw SO 20:16
191  Abby Caldwell FR 20:18
248  Andrea Toppin SR 20:27
322  Maryn Lowry SO 20:38
376  Evelyne Guay FR 20:43
459  Katherine DeSimone SR 20:51
580  Anne Frisbie FR 21:01
634  Kelly Naumann FR 21:06
National Rank #17 of 339
Midwest Region Rank #2 of 36
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.6%
Most Likely Finish 19th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 3.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 16.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 67.7%


Regional Champion 20.7%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Perez Rotich Erin Hooker Becky Straw Abby Caldwell Andrea Toppin Maryn Lowry Evelyne Guay Katherine DeSimone Anne Frisbie Kelly Naumann
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 1120 20:56 21:06 20:44
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/03 530 19:58 20:10 20:09 20:16 20:27 21:01 20:57 21:09
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 425 19:41 19:42 20:26 20:03 20:34 20:16 20:51
Big 12 Championships 10/31 491 19:44 19:45 20:20 20:25 20:36 20:23 21:04 20:59 21:27
Midwest Region Championships 11/13 575 20:01 20:06 20:17 20:16 20:49 20:38 20:47
NCAA Championship 11/21 724 19:43 20:26 20:47 20:39 21:32 20:55 20:41





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.6% 17.2 448 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.4 5.5 5.2 5.1 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.3
Region Championship 100% 2.1 91 20.7 52.6 23.3 2.8 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Perez Rotich 99.7% 50.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.4
Erin Hooker 99.6% 89.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4
Becky Straw 99.6% 138.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Abby Caldwell 99.6% 142.5 0.0
Andrea Toppin 99.6% 169.7
Maryn Lowry 99.6% 192.8
Evelyne Guay 99.6% 203.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Perez Rotich 5.6 4.8 7.6 9.7 12.0 10.7 8.9 8.2 6.7 6.0 5.0 4.5 3.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Erin Hooker 11.5 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.8 5.3 5.7 5.4 6.7 6.1 5.6 6.1 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.6 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.0
Becky Straw 20.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.8 4.2 4.4 5.0 4.4 4.7 5.5 4.5 4.9 5.3 4.4 4.3
Abby Caldwell 21.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.3 5.1 5.0 5.4 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5
Andrea Toppin 27.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.4
Maryn Lowry 35.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2
Evelyne Guay 40.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 20.7% 100.0% 20.7 20.7 1
2 52.6% 100.0% 52.6 52.6 2
3 23.3% 100.0% 17.5 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 23.3 3
4 2.8% 100.0% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8 4
5 0.5% 37.5% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
Total 100% 99.6% 20.7 52.6 17.5 6.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 73.3 26.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Penn State 99.6% 2.0 2.0
Washington 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 94.1% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 93.0% 2.0 1.9
Vanderbilt 92.1% 1.0 0.9
BYU 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 1.0 0.4
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 2.0 0.2
West Virginia 10.3% 2.0 0.2
Wisconsin 8.6% 2.0 0.2
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Lipscomb 6.0% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Mississippi 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 13.4
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 22.0